Letter to the DNC and Electoral Projection Map

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Poll Analysis: Clinton Maintains Her Lead Over McCain

Clinton	McCain
75.8% probability of winning	22.4% probability of winning
Mean of 279 electoral votes	Mean of 259 electoral votes

On Saturday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 78.5% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. With three new polls weighing in today, not much has changed.

After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 7,575 times (plus she gets the 188 ties), and McCain wins 2,237 times. Clinton now has a 77.6% (75.75% + 1.88%) probability of beating McCain in a general election—one held now. McCain has a 22.4% probability of winning.

On a similar map indicating Obama’s chances, he had only a 10.8% probability with a 239 electoral mean.

Dr. Howard Dean, Chairperson

Democratic National Committee

430 Capitol St. SE

Washington, D.C. 20003

 

 

Dear Chairman Dean:

 

Today I am enclosing a copy of my voter registration change from Democrat to Independent. To do so saddens me tremendously, as I have been a Democrat for over 30 years. I was one of the many who supported you to become chair of the DNC, because in 2000 I believed the Democratic Party left Al Gore in the lurch, a legitimately elected president who would never take office. I saw it as spineless and without conviction. I expected you to change all that.

 

Instead, I find myself in 2008 increasingly alienated from the party, because the DNC seems not to like that I support Hillary Rodham Clinton.

 

I know that Senator Clinton has called for party unity, and I know she is a true Democrat. But it is also clear to me that the DNC does not care about the core values I associate with being a Democrat. I want the candidate who is:

 

• truly for universal health care, not care just for children (parents need to be healthy too)
• unabashedly and unequivocally pro-choice (not accepting endorsement from anti-choice senators)
• putting Civil Rights for all people as a priority, including GLBTI people
• getting rid of No Child Left Behind because it hurts education
• advocating a forward looking environmental policy
• planning the fastest way out of Iraq while winning and finishing the war in Afganistan
• knowledgeable about foreign policy and not waiting to be educated about it by “experts”
• ready to put “dissenters” in her cabinet and get the best advice possible
• respectful of women, women’s rights, human rights, the working class no matter what ethnic group comprises it
• standing on the principle of letting votes count, not merely advocating following the rules: seat Michigan and Florida!
• taking privatization of Social Security off the table
• planning a means for curbing crime that doesn’t wind up putting more African Americans and other minorities in jail or building more prisons (yes, Clinton, not Obama)
• intelligent about economic policies, with multiple levels of understanding of what will work in the short term, midterm and long term
• going to reinstate habeas corpus
• going to appoint liberal justices to the Supreme Court
• showing that she can take any mud slung at her, without showing weakness; and taking responsibility for successes and failures (the buck stops here!)

 

Enclosed is a projected electoral map if Senator Obama wins the nomination. He cannot win the General Election in November, in my opinion. He will be a popular, but losing candidate like George McGovern in 1972. On the enclosed projected map, the electoral votes for Sen. Obama are probably too high, because he did not win any of the big states that the analyst is awarding him, but I am giving him the benefit of the doubt.

 

We all know that the contest between Senators Clinton and Obama will come down to the automatic delegates (superdelegates). I am taking this action today to impress on the DNC the need to work with the automatic delegates to ensure that Senator Clinton is the Democratic Party’s nominee for president in the 2008 election.

 

A hard look at the facts shows that this is the only road to reclaiming the White House, restoring our country to a place of respect in the world and ensuring that Democratic Party values are once again reflected in domestic policy and on the Supreme Court.

 

 

Yours sincerely,

 

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