May 5, 2008...1:26 pm
Change in the Air: Clinton and the Facebook Phenomenon
One of the bizarre things about the Obama campaign is the way in which people who have been apolitical have gravitated to him. Bizarre, but not bad necessarily. He has encouraged people to come out and vote and they have. But there’s something I have been noticing on Facebook recently: Hillary is getting more active support. There are Facebook groups for Hillary proliferating, and numbers are going up. A few months ago, Hillary’s Facebook presence was underwhelming, but no more!
I would presume this was just my wishful thinking because I support Clinton strongly, but it seems there is a little published Gallup poll that has also seen this trend, and she is strongly favored by moderate and/or conservative Democrats. In my experience as a college prof, both of these go hand in hand. Our youth are not that radical:
The most recent weekly aggregate of Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds Clinton doing just as well as Obama among voters aged 18 to 29. However, this is a sharp reversal for Clinton, who had been trailing Obama among young voters for most of March and April, so it is not clear whether the current data are an anomaly or a dramatic shift in younger voters’ preferences.
Obama Falls Short Among Conservative Democrats
Given the apparent willingness of many blacks to forsake Clinton in November if she is the Democratic Party’s nominee — either by voting for McCain or not voting at all — it may seem surprising that Clinton still outperforms Obama among Democrats (82% vs. 74%). The reason for this is Obama’s relatively poor performance among conservative Democrats.
Only 62% of Democrats who describe their political views as “conservative” choose Obama in a race between Obama and McCain. By contrast, 74% of conservative Democrats would vote for Clinton in a Clinton vs. McCain race. Obama does just as well as Clinton among liberal Democrats, and nearly as well among moderate Democrats. His great weakness is, and has been since early March, among conservative Democrats.
8 Comments
May 5, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I just saw the latest CNN poll. Hillary leading IN (I knew the neck’n'neck thing could not be right) and Obama leading NC but by less than 10% which is his magic number. It is interesting that her reclaiming the youth vote is not being reported. I think it is b/c of PA, IN and NC where young people are not so liberal. Plus, the economy is hitting us hard. In Chicago, everyone knows Obama is just so much blow, except for the newspapers who keep hyping him. The black churches came out in support of Rev. Wright, i.e., NOT Obama.
May 5, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Interesting about younger voters. Gallup says it might be an anomaly, but if you are right about Facebook, it sounds like young people are getting out of the Obamaton syndrome. Chicago brings up good points about the young people in certain states. Where I live a lot of them are Republicans or Independents, unwilling to support Dems, although I think more young people are still Democratic.
May 5, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Don’t give up on North Carolina going for Hillary, the polls all seem to be saying that Hillary is moving toward the small single digits and if it gets to within 5% points then Hillary will win North Carolina. The polling on her is always about 5% off.
http://goodtimepolitics.wordpress.com/2008/05/04/the-racial-issue-has-toppled-other-black-hopefuls-obama-may-not-be-immune/
May 5, 2008 at 3:40 pm
The New York Post is now reporting that Rev. Jeremiah Wright took another man’s wife. That does not sound like a man of God to this American.
May 5, 2008 at 5:17 pm
This race is hard on my nerves. It sort of blows me away that NC would not go for Hillary as it really benefitted during the Bill Clinton years. I saw this thing on Facebook that in NC some ballots were being passed around with Obama already checked off. Don’t know if it’s true b/c when I linked to the site, there was a lot of other stuff, including a group called Women’s Voices apparently making fraudulent calls against Obama. The Republicans are doing a lot of dirty stuff down there.
May 5, 2008 at 6:32 pm
For the first time in months my top post is no longer that one Obama joke that I put in weeks or months ago. The search keys I have been getting make me think that my readers are very young.
“Huntingtondon Post” considers those young people a-political. I think he is right, and I think they did not go for Obama for political reasons. Now somebody called him “nonchalant”; he is certainly charming. He seems to be made for the stage. I saw him once on the point of dancing as he came onstage, and he would make a great TV presentator or Hillary’s “meet the press” man.
I also saw for the first time that now the candidates are surrounded by their audiences. They have to speak in all directions, turn around some 180 degrees between sentences. I think that is a cruel arrangement, and it fits Obama and hampers Hillary.
May 6, 2008 at 4:30 pm
A new North Carolina poll released a day before the state’s crucial primary shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 48% to 46%. Survey USA’s survey has a margin of error 3.5 making this contest a statistical tie with Obama slightly favored in the state.
May 7, 2008 at 1:47 am
Once again the polls are phony.
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